GREETINGS ALL!
It’s that time of year again! Fantasy Freaks everywhere are already planning their strategies. In an effort to help you win your league (warning: shameless self-promotion ahead) I have created the Freak’s fourth annual fantasy football database. The database contains tons of stats, depth charts, rankings and team/player evaluations penned by yours truly. I have a sample of part of my work below. Take a look and let me know what you think by dropping me an email at askthefreak@hotmail.com. I plan on selling the complete database in August for $11.95, but for my friendly listeners on 580 radio, I’ll give you a good deal on the database if you drop me an email and pre-order. I’ll soon have details on how to place the order, but that is all still in the formulation stages.
Anyway, shoot me your opinions…thanks!
ARIZONA CARDINALS OVERVIEW:
The 2009 Arizona Cardinals were, to say the least, one dimensional. The Cards offense ranked third in the NFL in passing attempts and dead last in the league in rushing attempts. Quarterback Kurt Warner racked up his usual 3,700 plus passing yards while receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both topped the 1,000-yard mark in receiving yards. Yep, same old Cardinals. Well, don’t expect business as usual this year, as the 2010 Cardinals won’t resemble the previous teams in any way. Gone is Warner, who finally chose to retire. Gone is Boldin, who finally got the payday he wanted after being dealt to the Baltimore Ravens. While this might be fantasy heresy, the 2010 Arizona pass offense won’t likely contain a lot of fantasy studs.
QUARTERBACK: With Warner out of the way, it’s time for quarterback-of-the-future Matt Leinart to become the quarterback-of-the-present. While publically supporting Leinart in his projected role as starter, the Cards hedged their bets by acquiring former Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson. Leinart is said to have all the tools required of an NFL quarterback: the arm, the smarts, and the surrounding talent. Sure, Boldin is gone, but Fitzgerald will still be at Leinart’s disposal. Ditto for 2008 breakout Steve Breaston, who will shed his slot receiver role and succeed Boldin as the number two wideout. In an effort to reduce the club’s huge sack totals from 2009, Arizona brought in former Jets guard Alan Faneca, though his presence will probably be more of an impact on the running game.. In short, Warner’s departure didn’t leave the cupboard bare for Leinart, but one must suspect that this is a make-or-break year for the former first rounder. From a performance standpoint, Leinart could go either way. If he wants to dedicate himself to the game, then he has enough tools and supporting cast to be a solid number two fantasy quarterback. He has the tools and surrounding talent, but he must stay healthy, and injuries have affected him in the past. While we don’t believe he’ll be a total wash, expect a few growing pains from Leinart in 2010. Early mock drafts reflect Leinart’s ADP to be the 23rd to 25th quarterback on the board, and we’re comfortable with that assessment. Anderson will be Leinart’s backup and would conceivably get a shot at the starter’s job if Leinart falters, but it is Leinart’s job to lose.
RUNNING BACK: Warner’s retirement and Boldin’s departure will leave the passing game in a flux. Can the running game step up in the desert and be productive? Furthermore, if the running game becomes a bigger part of Arizona’s attack, what back will be more fantasy noteworthy? The fact that Arizona has lost a veteran quarterback and wide receiver this season after drafting running backs in 2008 (Hightower) and 2009 (Wells) is indicative of an offense in transition from the pass to the run. Plus, the addition to a road-grading guard such as Faneca almost screams to the world “Hey, we’re gonna RUN.” Indeed, Arizona ranked dead last in rushing attempts in 2009. Wells and Hightower had similar stats last season, though Hightower gained almost 300 more receiving yards. While we believe this will be a classic running back by committee situation, the club is very high on Wells and he could end up with more rushing yards while Hightower remains the more active back in passing situations. Either way, don’t look for either player to be worthy of more than a weak number three fantasy back. Hightower’s ADP has been checking in at around 40 among his running back peers while Wells has received ADP ratings remarkably higher in the early mocks, with some services considering him the 13th best back on the board. We feel that ranking Wells that high is off-the-charts overrated, and we wouldn’t consider him higher than the 20th to 25th ranked running back.. Again, these guys should be on your fantasy bench; DEEP on the fantasy bench.
WIDE RECEIVER: While Fitzgerald will no longer have Boldin to draw coverage, Breaston proved his worth in 2008 when Boldin suffered through an extended injury, racking up 77 receptions, 1,006 yards and three touchdowns. Even with Boldin back in the lineup in 2009, Breaston still managed 712 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Breaston’s ADP has been around 33rd to 37th among fantasy wideouts, which we feel would be a good value for him. We certainly don’t expect Boldin-like figures from Breaston, a 900-yard, three to five touchdown season shouldn’t be a stretch. Breaston should still be enough of a threat to keep opposing defenses from focusing totally on Fitzgerald, but Leinart’s performance will make or break him. Mock drafts currently consider Fitz as the second to sixth ranked fantasy receiver, and we believe that’s a fair assessment. Early Doucet is the early favorite (sorry, I HAD to do it) at flanker. In years past, the flanker spot in the Cardinals offense was productive (see Breaston). However, with the passing game going from Warner to Leinart, we can’t consider Doucet much of a fantasy threat at this time.
TIGHT END: In 2009, three Cardinals tight ends caught a cumulative 23 passes for 245 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Hey, with receivers such as Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston at your fingertips, why would you throw to the tight end? While there is a slight possibility of a bigger role for the tight end in 2010, the fact is the club lacks any real receiving talent in the group. Ben Patrick is a 6’3”, 265 pound blocker with 323 receiving yards and four touchdowns in three seasons. Anthony Becht is also primarily a blocking tight end with a recent history of injury. Don’t look for fantasy heroes here.
KICKER: In 2009 Neil Rackers connected on 16 field goals out of 17 attempts in 14 games, but he signed a free agent deal with Houston during the offseason. Enter veteran Jay Feely, who knocked down 30 field goals out of 36 attempts and amassed 122 NFL kicking points. We feel that Feely will be a number two fantasy kicker until Leinart proves that the offense can move the ball effectively under his leadership.
DEFENSE: Arizona fielded an average rush defense and a horrible pass defense in 2009, and losing linebacker Karlos Dansby to free agency won’t be helpful. The Cards pass defense ranked 27th in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed and an NFL-worst 14 sacks. However, the addition of veteran linebacker Joey Porter could provide a spark. Still, take a definite wait and see approach on draft day. SUMMARY: The entire theme of this evaluation is simple: as Leinart goes, so go the Cardinals. We think he has potential, but he still needs to make us believe he can succeed on a consistent basis before he can be considered a top fantasy talent. Fitzgerald will still likely find a way to get his numbers. Breaston could be a good number three fantasy wideout. Don’t expect much from the backs and even less from the tight ends. If Leinart has this team playing less than 500 ball by mid-season, then look for Anderson to move up the depth chart and get a shot as the starter.